NEW YORK – Up and down Wall Street, teams are huddling inside banks and gauging the risks to themselves, their clients and markets if US lawmakers fail to raise the debt ceiling.
Financial firms are already racking up expenses as they rush to prepare, assigning workers and executives – including heads of trading, corporate banking and consumer banking – to study how the government's failure to pay bills would cascade through markets, according to people with knowledge of the situation. Efforts to brace balance sheets and advise clients on contingency planning are prompting a surge of costly hedges.
US President Joe Biden and congressional leaders in both parties emerged from a White House meeting on Tuesday offering glimmers of hope about eventually reaching a deal to raise the debt limit, even as they conceded they were still far from averting a default that could come as soon as June 1.
One challenge complicating Wall Street's case for more urgency is, ironically, also coming from markets, where stock prices and bond trading remains relatively stable. Many investors see a default as so obviously catastrophic – akin to mutually assured destruction in nuclear war – that they have been behaving as if Democrats and Republicans will absolutely come together to hash out a solution, just as they have in the past.
While that's also the view of many rank-and-file bankers, the industry's leaders have grown concerned enough to assign significant resources to preparing for the worst, taking fresh looks at potential risks, their balance sheets and even the legal language underpinning trades or assets.
JPMorgan chief executive officer Jamie Dimon went as far as describing his team's preparation as a “war room.”
Some bankers are quick to point out that they are always working on managing risks. Just two months ago, they were trying to anticipate what kinds of problems might come their way from troubled regional lenders.
But an unprecedented US debt default is both harder to model and far more catastrophic, requiring far more time and personnel. One thing that makes that work slightly easier is that banks have seen deadlock over the debt ceiling in the past, giving them ample opportunities to create – and now dust off – plans for what to do if a deal isn't reached in time.
While finance-industry leaders have routine conversations with top regulators, their joint focus on the debt ceiling has intensified in recent weeks, the people with knowledge of the situation said.
Some senior bank executives have been asked to talk through the various scenarios with the Treasury Department and Mr Biden's economic advisers, describing the effects a default could have on their business and clients.
Among the notes that industry leaders keep hitting is that a prolonged standoff could hurt confidence in US creditworthiness, likely raising costs for the nation's taxpayers and taking a toll on investors and companies around the globe, the people said.
“The last thing that the world and America needs is to have a debt ceiling crisis,” Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser said on Bloomberg Television earlier this month, calling the consequences “quite dire” for consumers, corporates and investors.